One-year-ahead predictive performance compared across all stocks using four models:

  1. Linear regression
  2. GAM
  3. Random forest
  4. Neural networks


Notably, the neural models were usually the worst performing model. The only exception were the Sablefish and Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Southern CA) models, where the neural network was the only model that had any predictive skill.


Models for the following stocks had some predictive skill (RMSE < RMSE of the null model) - models that outperformed the null model are listed after the stock:

  • Black Rockfish (OR) - lm, gam, rf
  • Black Rockfish (WA) - lm, gam, rf
  • Copper Rockfish (Northern CA) - rf
  • Copper Rockfish (Southern CA) - gam, rf
  • Lingcod (North) - rf
  • Lingcod (South) - lm
  • Petrale Sole - lm, gam
  • Rougheye/Blackspotted Rockfish - lm, gam
  • Sablefish - NN
  • Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Southern CA) - NN
  • Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Northern CA) - lm, gam, rf
  • Vermilion Rockfish (OR) - rf

One-Year-Ahead Predictive Performance

Black Rockfish - Northern CA (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (Northern CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.2963724 null
rsq standard 0.0077847 null
rmse standard 0.4050867 lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rsq standard 0.1412242 lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rmse standard 0.4050867 gam(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rsq standard 0.1412242 gam(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rmse standard 0.3107733 random forest
rsq standard 0.1220411 random forest
rmse standard 19.3888487 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1 + ild_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0812707 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1 + ild_PC2)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (Northern CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1) 1.37
gam(Value ~ ssh_PC1) 1.37
random forest 1.05
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1 + ild_PC2) 65.42

Black Rockfish - Central CA (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (Central CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.4155415 null
rsq standard 0.0082954 null
rmse standard 0.4569453 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rsq standard 0.3895526 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rmse standard 0.4458777 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rsq standard 0.1971388 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rmse standard 0.4181146 random forest
rsq standard 0.0708997 random forest
rmse standard 0.8547570 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1 + sst_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0236019 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1 + sst_PC2)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (Central CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ bbv_PC3) 1.10
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC3) 1.07
random forest 1.01
nn(Value ~ ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1 + sst_PC2) 2.06

Black Rockfish - Oregon (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (OR).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.5632123 null
rsq standard 0.4316920 null
rmse standard 0.5323956 lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0377900 lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rmse standard 0.5323956 gam(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0377900 gam(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rmse standard 0.4907266 random forest
rsq standard 0.3319038 random forest
rmse standard 1.8961576 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3)
rsq standard 0.0678639 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (OR), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1) 0.95
gam(Value ~ ssh_PC1) 0.95
random forest 0.87
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3) 3.37

Black Rockfish - Washington (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (WA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.4396591 null
rsq standard 0.3216705 null
rmse standard 0.3704799 lm(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.4492561 lm(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rmse standard 0.3704799 gam(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.4492561 gam(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rmse standard 0.4061710 random forest
rsq standard 0.1483888 random forest
rmse standard 0.4597364 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0476205 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (OR), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ild_PC1) 0.84
gam(Value ~ ild_PC1) 0.84
random forest 0.92
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1) 1.05

Canary Rockfish (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Canary Rockfish.
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.5849578 null
rsq standard 0.0000053 null
rmse standard 0.8953659 lm(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.2563002 lm(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rmse standard 0.8953659 gam(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.2563002 gam(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rmse standard 0.7131607 random forest
rsq standard 0.0130052 random forest
rmse standard 1.7180547 nn(Value ~ sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north + BEUTI_central)
rsq standard 0.1805439 nn(Value ~ sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north + BEUTI_central)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Black Rockfish (OR), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ild_PC1) 1.53
gam(Value ~ ild_PC1) 1.53
random forest 1.22
nn(Value ~ sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north + BEUTI_central) 2.94

Copper Rockfish - CA, North of Point Conception (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Copper Rockfish (Northern CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.4249447 null
rsq standard 0.0524008 null
rmse standard 0.5989102 lm(Value ~ sst_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0057120 lm(Value ~ sst_PC2)
rmse standard 0.5989102 gam(Value ~ sst_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0057120 gam(Value ~ sst_PC2)
rmse standard 0.3965304 random forest
rsq standard 0.2068388 random forest
rmse standard 0.5159152 nn(Value ~ sst_PC2 + sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north)
rsq standard 0.0978254 nn(Value ~ sst_PC2 + sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Copper Rockfish (Northern CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ sst_PC2) 1.41
gam(Value ~ sst_PC2) 1.41
random forest 0.93
nn(Value ~ sst_PC2 + sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north) 1.21

Copper Rockfish - CA, South of Point Conception (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Copper Rockfish (Southern CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.8606991 null
rsq standard 0.0259818 null
rmse standard 0.9409738 lm(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rsq standard 0.3446497 lm(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rmse standard 0.6992744 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.4049054 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 0.8279231 random forest
rsq standard 0.0813633 random forest
rmse standard 0.8665475 nn(Value ~ ild_PC3 + ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0204523 nn(Value ~ ild_PC3 + ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Copper Rockfish (Southern CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ild_PC3) 1.09
gam(Value ~ sst_PC1) 0.81
random forest 0.96
nn(Value ~ ild_PC3 + ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2) 1.01

Dover Sole (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Dover Sole.
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.2340163 null
rsq standard 0.5066686 null
rmse standard 0.3730846 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rsq standard 0.3696460 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rmse standard 0.3730846 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rsq standard 0.3696460 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC3)
rmse standard 0.2659267 random forest
rsq standard 0.0734184 random forest
rmse standard 0.5041769 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.2578559 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Dover Sole, relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ bbv_PC3) 1.59
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC3) 1.59
random forest 1.14
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4) 2.15

Lingcod - North of 40°10’N (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Lingcod (North of 40°10’N).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.3178165 null
rsq standard 0.4863985 null
rmse standard 0.3498066 lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0249049 lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1)
rmse standard 0.3382998 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0471773 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC1)
rmse standard 0.2920523 random forest
rsq standard 0.1237847 random forest
rmse standard 0.6158732 nn(Value ~ sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north + BEUTI_central)
rsq standard 0.0503444 nn(Value ~ sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north + BEUTI_central)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Lingcod (North of 40°10’N), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ssh_PC1) 1.10
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC1) 1.06
random forest 0.92
nn(Value ~ sst_PC3 + BEUTI_north + BEUTI_central) 1.94

Lingcod - South of 40°10’N (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Lingcod (South of 40°10’N).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.5879613 null
rsq standard 0.4638957 null
rmse standard 0.5119190 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.4716357 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 0.6659406 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.2300992 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rmse standard 0.5901226 random forest
rsq standard 0.1749068 random forest
rmse standard 0.7358934 nn(Value ~ ild_PC3 + ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0746253 nn(Value ~ ild_PC3 + ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Lingcod (South of 40°10’N), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ sst_PC1) 0.87
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4) 1.13
random forest 1.00
nn(Value ~ ild_PC3 + ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2) 1.25

Petrale Sole (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Petrale Sole.
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.4197529 null
rsq standard 0.1976446 null
rmse standard 0.2862455 lm(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.1405069 lm(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rmse standard 0.2862455 gam(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.1405069 gam(Value ~ ild_PC1)
rmse standard 0.4377520 random forest
rsq standard 0.0548927 random forest
rmse standard 0.5228531 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0030611 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Petrale Sole, relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ild_PC1) 0.68
gam(Value ~ ild_PC1) 0.68
random forest 1.04
nn(Value ~ ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1) 1.25

Quillback Rockfish - California (2025 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Quillback Rockfish (CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.9100176 null
rsq standard 0.0545297 null
rmse standard 0.9881791 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.1302175 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 1.0153269 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.1378844 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 0.9765129 random forest
rsq standard 0.2311614 random forest
rmse standard 1.0420489 nn(Value ~ sst_PC1 + sst_PC2 + sst_PC3)
rsq standard 0.0020277 nn(Value ~ sst_PC1 + sst_PC2 + sst_PC3)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Quillback Rockfish (CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ sst_PC1) 1.09
gam(Value ~ sst_PC1) 1.12
random forest 1.07
nn(Value ~ sst_PC1 + sst_PC2 + sst_PC3) 1.15

Rex Sole (2023 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Rex Sole.
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.3069456 null
rsq standard 0.5842918 null
rmse standard 0.3454670 lm(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rsq standard 0.0044072 lm(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rmse standard 0.3454670 gam(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rsq standard 0.0044072 gam(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rmse standard 0.3307738 random forest
rsq standard 0.0895737 random forest
rmse standard 0.6712678 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1 + ild_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0628302 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1 + ild_PC2)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Rex Sole, relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ild_PC3) 1.13
gam(Value ~ ild_PC3) 1.13
random forest 1.08
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1 + ild_PC2) 2.19

Rougheye/Blackspotted Rockfish (2025 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Rougheye/Blackspotted Rockfish
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.3406084 null
rsq standard 0.2922057 null
rmse standard 0.3291691 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0421113 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 0.3291691 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0421113 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 0.3443538 random forest
rsq standard 0.0426693 random forest
rmse standard 0.4594297 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0196872 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Rougheye/Blackspotted Rockfish, relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ sst_PC1) 0.97
gam(Value ~ sst_PC1) 0.97
random forest 1.01
nn(Value ~ ssh_PC1 + ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1) 1.35

Sablefish (2025 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Sablefish.
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 1.6667803 null
rsq standard 0.0330983 null
rmse standard 1.8494220 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0148804 lm(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 1.8494220 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0148804 gam(Value ~ sst_PC1)
rmse standard 2.1146448 random forest
rsq standard 0.0687706 random forest
rmse standard 1.2966860 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3)
rsq standard NA nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Sablefish, relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ sst_PC1) 1.11
gam(Value ~ sst_PC1) 1.11
random forest 1.27
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3) 0.78

Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish - Southern CA (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Southern CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.4855121 null
rsq standard 0.1231018 null
rmse standard 0.6215740 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.0396804 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rmse standard 0.6215740 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.0396804 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rmse standard 0.5242158 random forest
rsq standard 0.0013270 random forest
rmse standard 0.3231994 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3)
rsq standard 0.4412999 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Southern CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ bbv_PC4) 1.28
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4) 1.28
random forest 1.08
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC1 + bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3) 0.67

Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish - Northern CA (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Northern CA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.6176485 null
rsq standard 0.5043966 null
rmse standard 0.6046721 lm(Value ~ sst_PC3)
rsq standard 0.1372047 lm(Value ~ sst_PC3)
rmse standard 0.5213604 gam(Value ~ ssh_PC2)
rsq standard 0.2996705 gam(Value ~ ssh_PC2)
rmse standard 0.5828335 random forest
rsq standard 0.0936313 random forest
rmse standard 1.0592089 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1 + sst_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0039023 nn(Value ~ ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1 + sst_PC2)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion & Sunset Rockfish (Northern CA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ sst_PC3) 0.98
gam(Value ~ ssh_PC2) 0.84
random forest 0.94
nn(Value ~ ssh_PC2 + sst_PC1 + sst_PC2) 1.71

Vermilion Rockfish - Oregon (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion Rockfish (OR).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.7442747 null
rsq standard 0.1698825 null
rmse standard 0.9399516 lm(Value ~ BEUTI_north)
rsq standard 0.0119463 lm(Value ~ BEUTI_north)
rmse standard 0.8601301 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC2)
rsq standard 0.0004388 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC2)
rmse standard 0.5176158 random forest
rsq standard 0.7188034 random forest
rmse standard 0.9937416 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.2453851 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion Rockfish (OR), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ BEUTI_north) 1.26
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC2) 1.16
random forest 0.70
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4) 1.34

Vermilion Rockfish - Washington (2021 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion Rockfish (WA).
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.2765086 null
rsq standard 0.0757938 null
rmse standard 0.2967041 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC2)
rsq standard 0.1878428 lm(Value ~ bbv_PC2)
rmse standard 0.2853399 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.0908816 gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4)
rmse standard 0.3399405 random forest
rsq standard 0.0543547 random forest
rmse standard 2.0768720 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4)
rsq standard 0.0072048 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Vermilion Rockfish (WA), relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ bbv_PC2) 1.07
gam(Value ~ bbv_PC4) 1.03
random forest 1.23
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC2 + bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4) 7.51

Yellowtail Rockfish (2025 assessment)

One-year-ahead predictive performance for Yellowtail Rockfish.
.metric .estimator .estimate model
rmse standard 0.3763850 null
rsq standard 0.0174264 null
rmse standard 0.5121424 lm(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rsq standard 0.1925556 lm(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rmse standard 0.5121424 gam(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rsq standard 0.1925556 gam(Value ~ ild_PC3)
rmse standard 0.4296216 random forest
rsq standard 0.0617128 random forest
rmse standard 0.4909243 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1)
rsq standard 0.0785534 nn(Value ~ bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1)
RMSE of One-year-ahead predictive performance for Yellowtail Rockfish, relative to null model.
model performance_v_null
null 1.00
lm(Value ~ ild_PC3) 1.36
gam(Value ~ ild_PC3) 1.36
random forest 1.14
nn(Value ~ bbv_PC3 + bbv_PC4 + ild_PC1) 1.30